Dalit vote figures in UP.(UP) 

New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA has made complete preparations for the Lok Sabha elections 2024. To form the government for the third time, PM Narendra Modi has set a target of more than 400 seats for the NDA. Out of these, the target of 370 seats is for BJP alone. It is said that the route to Lok Sabha passes through UP. In such a situation, it is obvious that to achieve the target of 370 seats alone, BJP will have to win maximum seats in Uttar Pradesh. There are 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.(UP) 
BJP’s morale is so high in UP that it is claiming to win 80 out of 80 seats here. There are two reasons for this. First reason- BJP’s morale is high due to the construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya. Second reason-BJP is getting bonus from the weakening Bahujan Samaj Party. In such a situation, the question is whether BJP’s work will be completed in UP with Maya and Ram?

BJP’s Plan 80 in UP
Three pictures are emerging before the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. The first picture is of BJP. She claims that she is going to win 80/80 seats. The second picture is of Samajwadi Party and Congress. Initially things seemed to be deteriorating between these two parties, but on Wednesday the alliance was announced. This also gave some strength to the faltering INDIA Alliance. The third picture is of Bahujan Samaj Party, in which no movement is visible. Mayawati is in her house and outside the wall of confusion and confusion is getting higher day by day. Even 10 BSP MPs do not know what is going to happen.
These 3 questions are arising in UP
In these three political situations, three important questions arise before the elections. Is BSP going through the weakest phase in its history? Can BJP achieve such victory which no one has done till now in UP? If such a situation exists, then why can it happen?

BJP’s eye on Dalit votes
As the weight of the election defeat increased, Mayawati became isolated from the people. In that situation of erosion, BJP is eyeing Dalit votes. Mayawati is not seen anywhere on the streets, but on Friday, just a day before Raidas Jayanti, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will definitely be at the Raidas temple in Banaras. PM Modi keeps visiting the temple of Sant Raidas, the great poet who highlighted Dalit consciousness. The whole game is about Dalit votes. Dalit vote in UP is around 22%. At one time BSP’s monopoly on this vote was considered safe.

BSP has been on a continuous decline since 2012. Not a single MP of Mayawati could reach the Lok Sabha in 2014. In 2019, 10 MPs arrived, and the alliance with Samajwadi Party played a big role in it. But after the elections, Mayawati left the Samajwadi Party. BSP contested the 2022 assembly elections alone and could win only one seat. Still Mayawati has announced ‘Ekla Chalo Re’.
Other parties trying to take advantage of Mayawati’s political decline
Due to this political decline of Mayawati, BJP, Congress and Samajwadi Party are trying to make a dent in her vote bank. BJP is trying to ensure that Dalit votes come to its account in such a situation. BJP also feels that it can get Dalit votes. However, the election result of UP can go in favor of the one in whose favor the Dalits will vote.

Why are Dalits moving away from Mayawati in UP?
Once upon a time, all the hopes of Dalits in Uttar Pradesh and to fulfill them, most of their votes used to fall on the ‘elephant’ symbol of BSP. But gradually BSP became so weak that in the last Lok Sabha elections, non-Jatav Dalits voted for BJP more than Mayawati. At that time, BSP also had an alliance with Akhilesh, but now his fighting alone seems to be making him politically isolated.

Kanshi Ram, who founded BSP, had once said that the first election is to be lost, the second election is to be defeated and the third election is to be won. But the continuous poor performance of his party on Kanshiram’s theory is raising the question, what next? The party’s support base has been continuously slipping in the last 12 years. Akhilesh Yadav, who was her election partner last time, is trying his luck this time on Chandrashekhar Azad, who comes from the same community as Mayawati.
Dalit vote figures in UP
It is certain that Dalit vote will make or break the game of power in UP elections. Mayawati’s biggest asset was these Dalit votes, but that base kept slipping from election to election. Dalit vote in UP is 20%, of which 12% are Jatav and 8% are non-Jatav Dalits. In the 2017 assembly elections, Mayawati got 87% Jatav votes, but after five years it reduced by 22% to 65%. Non-Jatav votes were 44%, which reduced by 17% to 27% in 2022.

The BJP-led NDA got 8% Jatav votes in 2017, but it increased more than two and a half times to 21% in 2022. At the same time, the 32% non-Jatav votes received in 2017 increased to 41% in 2022.
How did BSP votes shift towards BJP in 5 years?
In 2017, the difference in Jatav votes between BSP and NDA was 69%. In 2022 this gap will reduce to only 12%. If we talk about non-Jatav Dalit votes, then in 2017 the difference between BSP and NDA was 44%. Whereas in 2022 it reversed. Here non-Jatav Dalits voted 14% more for NDA than for BSP.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi named Ayodhya Airport after Maharishi Valmiki to honor the Dalit icons. On the other hand, BJP organized conferences of Scheduled Caste category in six major cities of the state. Besides, a team of Dalit leaders like MP Brijlal, MLC Lalji Nirmal and party spokesperson Jugal Kishore was also formed.