Facing competition from Congress on every seat.  ( Congress )

Chandigarh: The battle of Lok Sabha elections is reaching the sixth round. The sixth phase of voting is to be held on 25 May. If the word ‘Dangal’ is mentioned, Haryana automatically comes to mind. In terms of elections, Haryana is called a bellwether state, because since 1999, the party that wins Haryana has been in power at the Center. In 2019, BJP had won all these 10 seats. However, just before the 2024 elections, a major political reversal was seen in Haryana. Amidst the political developments, the paths of BJP-JJP parted. BJP removed Manohar Lal Khattar and made Naib Singh Saini the Chief Minister, ending the party’s alliance with Dushyant Chautala. Now BJP is contesting the elections alone in the state. Congress and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) are also in the fray. In Haryana, there is an alliance between Congress  ( Congress ) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Let us understand whether BJP will be able to show the strength of 10 in Haryana like in 2019? Or will the ‘hands’ of Congress be able to change the current political situation.

223 candidates trying their luck on 10 seats

A multi-cornered contest is being witnessed in Haryana. BJP, Congress, JJP and INLD have fielded their respective candidates. AAP is contesting from Kurukshetra parliamentary seat from the INDIA Alliance of opposition parties. A total of 223 candidates including 16 women are contesting on 10 Lok Sabha seats.

Who is contesting from where?

1. Hisar seat: Ranjit Chautala (BJP), Naina Chautala (JJP), Sunaina Chautala (INLD), Jaiprakash (CONG). 2. Sonipat seat: Satpal Brahmachari (CONG) and Mohan Lal Badauli (BJP). 3. Sirsa seat: Kumari Selja (CONG) and Ashok Tanwar (BJP). 4. Gurugram seat: Rao Indrajit (BJP) and Raj Babbar (CONG). 5. Faridabad seat: Krishan Pal Gurjar (BJP) and Mahendra Pratap Singh (CONG). 6. Rohtak seat: Deepender Singh Hooda (CONG) and Arvind Sharma (BJP). 7. Karnal: Manohar Lal Khattar (BJP) and Divyanshu Buddhiraja (CONG). 8. Kurukshetra: Naveen Jindal (BJP), Dr. Sushil Gupta (AAP), Abhay Chautala (INLD). 9. Ambala: Banto Kataria (BJP) and Varun Mullana (CONG). 10. Bhiwani-Mahendragarh: Rao Dan Singh (CONG) and Chaudhary Dharambir Singh (BJP).

In 2024, BJP is facing competition from Congress on every seat

In the last election, all 10 seats went to BJP. Apart from Rohtak, there was no tough competition anywhere else. This time the story has changed a bit. Congress is giving tough competition to BJP on almost every seat. BJP leaders are having to sweat more in Rohtak, Sirsa and Sonipat. Karnal, Gurugram and Faridabad seats remain a challenge for Congress. Tough competition in Ambala, Hisar, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and Kurukshetra as well

BJP showed its strength of 10 in 2019

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won all 10 seats in Haryana. BJP’s vote share was 58%. Congress did not get a single seat, but the vote share was 28%. INLD’s vote share was 0%, while JJP got 5% votes.

BJP showed its tricks in 2014

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a close contest between BJP and Congress in Haryana. BJP won 7 out of 10 seats. The vote share was 35%. Congress won one seat and the vote share was 23%. Whereas INLD got 2 seats and its vote share was 24%.

Congress had shown magic in 2009

In the 2009 election, Congress won 9 seats in Haryana. The vote share was 42%. While Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) got one seat. BJP could not win a single seat, but its vote share was 12%. INLD’s vote share was 16%.

Who got which caste’s vote in 2019?

According to the data of CSDS Lokniti, in the 2019 election, 74% of the non-Jat upper caste votes went to BJP. Congress got 18% votes. 50% Jats voted for BJP and 33% for Congress. 73% of the OBC community’s votes went to BJP and 22% chose Congress. 58% of the SC community’s votes went to BJP and 28% to Congress. Talking about Muslim votes, 14% of this community’s votes went to BJP and 86% to Congress.

Haryana battle difficult for Congress

In 2019, BJP won most of the seats with a huge margin. In such a situation, Congress will have to make a big dent in BJP’s vote. Last time, BJP’s margin of victory was so big that even if it makes a dent of 15% in their vote bank, it will still be able to win only 5 seats. In the current political situation, three possibilities are emerging:-

-If CONG+ snatches 5% of BJP’s votes, then in this case BJP will get 9 seats. CONG+ will get one seat. -If CONG+ snatches 10% of BJP’s votes, then in this case BJP will get 8 out of 10 seats. CONG+ will have 2 seats.

– If CONG+ snatches 15% of BJP’s votes, then BJP will get only 5 seats. CONG+ will also get 5 seats.

Who will JJP and INLD harm?
Political analyst Sanjay Seth says, “Haryana is a state where BJP’s position was not so strong before 2014. It is only after 2014 that BJP has come into a strong position in Haryana’s assembly and Lok Sabha seats. The government will have an incumbency of 10 years. It can be pro-incumbency as well as anti-incumbency. Because in between, many such incidents have happened, like the farmers’ movement… its effect will be seen in the elections. Obviously JJP and INLD will try to take advantage of this. Now it remains to be seen how much damage it will cause to BJP.”